A sovereign wealth fund engaged Ergo to develop a strategy to secure the supply of seven critical imported foodstuffs through a series of targeted, high-return investments at key stages of the supply chain. The client needed to understand the political, regulatory, and supply-chain vulnerabilities in a broad range of producing countries to make strategic, synergistic investments that would stand the test of time.

Ergo identified seven foodstuffs of critical importance to the client's home country and — using input from leading agricultural experts — identified key producing countries with advantageous investment opportunities for each foodstuff. After pairing foodstuffs and producing countries, we leveraged 41 leading on-the-ground experts and mapped and "stress tested" every stage of the supply chain, from production to processing to internal transport to international shipping, to identify its strengths and vulnerabilities. We subsequently engaged top experts to participate in an extensive peer-reviewed scenario mapping exercise to envision scenarios in which production and global supply of each foodstuff would be endangered.

With deep local knowledge, Ergo identified investment opportunities across the supply chains, formulated sequencing strategies to time and coordinate investments, and shed light on regulatory hurdles, export reliability, and political risk. Our analysis helped the client build the foundation of a comprehensive, multi-stage food security strategy.